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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."